IF ECONOMIST David Romer was coaching, we’d see more running and passing plays on fourth down and fewer kicks.
While listening to an Oakland Raiders game, the University of California economist wondered why more coaches don’t go for a potentially game-altering touchdown or try to keep the ball on fourth down.
As a result, he and five research assistants examined 2,675 fourth-down, first-quarter plays in 732 regular season National Football League games from 1989 through 2000. The result was a controversial 33-page paper filled with equations, formulas, charts and statistical details that indicate coaches should gamble more on fourth down from nearly every spot on the field — even with fourth and three on their own 10 yard line.
Out of the 1,100 fourth downs where Romer thought teams should go for it, the pros kicked 992 times. On 1,575 fourth downs where the economist felt teams would be better off kicking, they ran or passed only seven times.
Their research indicates that:
1. With fewer than 4 yards to go, going for it on fourth down is almost always the best strategy.
2. Going for it with 10 yards to go may be smart, depending on field position.
3. Going for it on fourth down with 5 yards to go at midfield makes sense, because there’s a good likelihood of a first down and the opponent’s chances of scoring from that position aren’t so hot.
4. A team facing fourth and goal is better off trying for a touchdown if within 5 yards of the end zone.
5. Even on your own 10-yard line with 90 yards to go, a team within 3 yards of a first down is better off going for it.
“The payoff to succeeding is very high,” says Romer.“But if you punt, you’ve given the ball away for sure.” For a copy of the eyebrow raising 33-page research report, go to www.nber.org/papers/w9024.